Monday, January 2, 2017

Questions and admissions

SJSU stands 5-5 after five home games and five away with conference play now underway. Will this .500 winning percentage be maintained? elevated? lessened? Your guess is as good as ours.

Because we earlier predicted that a winning Spartan season would, in part, be predicated on getting a solid defensive effort plus board work from 6-foot-10 Ryan Singer. As he is averaging just 4.5 minutes per game, it looks like we are going to be wrong with that forecast. But let's see how the remaining schedule plays out to see if, indeed, the season is successful.

It's still early but Ashtin Chastain physically is appearing to be a career backup so, minus the usage of Singer, the middle currently is all on the shoulders of Ryan Welage. He remains physically unimposing, isn't necessarily all that agile and sports just a single blocked shot after 10 games. He remains up-and-down with his scoring and rebounding production and the team typically wins when he delivers and loses when he falls short. In league play, can the Spartans win both games they are supposed to as well as some they are not predicted while sporting just a single and inconsistent big?

It could be argued that Brandon Clarke is part of a inside tandem as he's an excellent shotblocker and tremendous offensive rebounder. However, a second center, one who can have an effect on the boards as well as be a factor defensively, remains needed for when Welage is enduring an off-night and to offset his current weaknesses. Yes, Keith Fisher III will help in certain areas upfront next season but that's down the road and nobody is mistaking him for a big. A power forward, yes, but Fisher doesn't currently have the needed height and weight to be a difference maker solely playing the middle.

Heck, the question even remains if Welage can be an everynight, count-on contributor but Coach Dave Wojcik is betting on that and only time will tell. At the end of this season, a determination will be made if Welage is at the level of a player who can be paired with Brandon Clarke to build a team around, or not.

+++++

Strike two. We also offered that it would be best to go with Nai Carlisle at the point and live with the times when his lack of college experience would undoubtedly appear. Uh, that hasn't been the reality since he's being redshirted. Jalen James is showing more at the point this season -- his shooting remains improved but still questionable -- however, a 24-12 assist-to-turnover ration is solid. More assists would obviously be preferable but that's dependent on teammates making a higher percentage of their shots and SJSU is currently accurate on just 41% of its overall shot attempts.

6-foot-5 prep guard signee Noah Baumann will help in this area in 2017-18 but do remember that he will be a freshman so what about now? Jaycee Hillsman seems more suited to the wing as his shooting range is 15-feet and, to his credit, he has earned 32 free throw attempts, second on the team. Freshman Isaiah Nichols is in a deep shooting slump and it's unlikely he will work out of that during conference play when defenses are much more so zeroed in on 'likes' and 'tendencies.' Gary Williams Jr. has enjoyed his moments and should get more open looks if he can continue his dribble-drives. Terrell Brown is still adjusting to the college game and an uptick in consistency would be welcomed but not likely right now. It is just a lost season Cody Schwartz who is not just inaccurate with his shooting but has yet to go to the foul line. E.J. Boyce is workable as a catch-and-shoot guy but on a different team where defenses have to intensely focus on two or three others or pay a lethal price. The guess here is that he'll be on a DII team next season.

Short of placing Brandon Clarke on the rack in desperation of stretching his frame a few more inches, apparent needs for next season are a 6-foot-9, 6-foot-10 center who won't necessarily need to score. Settling for defensive effect and rebounding will be enough. Can such be acquired?

Another critical element: projecting who will grow into their roles. Can Jaycee Hillsman produce 10-12 points each night? What will Isaiah Nichols show as a sophomore and beyond? Terrell Brown is a blur but he's not a point so can he shoot well enough from outside to create driving lanes against solid defenses?

Personnel movement down the road? Jalen James will likely be granted another season of eligibility. Does he remain at SJSU or play the field as a graduate transfer? The same for Brandon Mitchell. Even Cody Schwartz's situation looks iffy if he wishes to get on the court. Will Ryan Singer remain if his playing time remains as is? So there may be room for other signees.

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